On Monday 11 November, the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will begin in Baku, Azerbaijan. With negotiations centred around climate finance, this conference is a pivotal moment to advance global climate ambition: Parties are set to replace the current goal of mobilising USD 100 billion per year with a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). This renewed commitment towards the Paris Agreement will be essential, as Parties are expected to submit new, more ambitious strategies, that align with the outcomes of the Global Stocktake of climate action, which concluded last year. Acknowledging the ocean’s potential as an untapped source of solutions, the Global Stocktake invited Parties to scale up ocean-based action for both mitigation and adaptation. However, countries’ ability to integrate ocean-based solutions in their strategies, and effectively implement them, will largely depend on the provision of adequate financing – making it essential for Parties to recognise that ocean finance is a key component of climate finance.
From Dubai To Baku: Laying the foundation for action
Last year, COP28 concluded the first-ever Global Stocktake – a two-year process designed to assess progress made by the international community towards achieving the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. The conclusions are clear: the world is off track, and the window of opportunity to course correct is closing rapidly. More than just an assessment, the Global Stocktake outlines concrete pathways to steer our climate trajectory back on track. Parties are now expected to act on these findings by submitting new, more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – the main implementation tool of the Paris Agreement – by February 2025. However, the effectiveness of these strategies, both in terms of ambition and implementation, hinges on the availability of means of implementation, including financial resources unlocked.
At the heart of the Paris Agreement is the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”, which recognises the different capabilities and, therefore, different responsibilities of developed and developing countries in addressing climate change. With the adoption of the Paris Agreement, developed countries committed to providing $100 billion every year by 2020 to support developing countries in their climate efforts, with the objective to revise this goal before 2025. This is particularly important given that support from developed countries has been lagging behind. The $100 billion target was actually only reached in 2022 – or two years later than planned, significantly affecting the ability of developing countries to meet climate goals. The revision of this target at COP29 presents a crucial opportunity to rebuild trust not only among countries but also in the Paris Agreement itself – as the international community strives to keep the 1.5°C target within reach. Ultimately, this new goal could also help to restore confidence in multilateralism, as the climate crisis is a challenge no country can tackle alone.
Unlocking ocean finance for ambitious climate action
At the heart of the COP29 negotiations is the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate action, intended to replace the current target of USD 100 billion. After two years of an intense and complex technical process, the political phase has just started. Negotiations still revolve around the identification of the NCQG’s core elements, such as the target amount, the timeline, the allocation criteria, and mechanisms to measure progress. As such, discussions remain mostly at a macro level, and are unlikely to become any more granular. The process has not devoted significant time unpacking ocean-related, or even nature-related, climate finance. While this is linked to the level of discussions, and not a lack of prioritisation, it is important to ensure that these sectors benefit from this increase in climate finance.
To that end, the Ocean & Climate Platform and Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance – with the support of Blue Marine Foundation, the Global Ocean Trust, The Nature Conservancy, and the United Nations Global Compact – published the policy brief: “Unpacking Ocean Finance for Climate Action” to provide a set of concrete recommendations for Parties to consider the ocean and the solutions it provides in the NCQG and other UNFCCC processes, including finance-related.
Indeed, the brief also offers some insights into the Loss & Damage discussions, specifically on the operationalisation of the dedicated fund that was adopted in 2022 at COP27. As Parties are advancing the process, issuing initial guidance to the Fund and defining its main modalities and policies, it is essential to ensure that responses to ocean-related loss and damage (e.g., ocean warming, marine heat waves, ocean acidification, sea level rise) are given due consideration.
Meanwhile, after two consecutive COPs without reaching an agreement, negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement will continue. When effectively implemented, Article 6 can unlock international finance for mitigation activities, including those related to blue carbon, that may not be available through domestic means, thereby enabling countries to raise the ambition of their NDC targets. It is therefore particularly important to reach a consensus and make Article 6 fully operational, as it presents an opportunity to improve transparency and the effectiveness of high-quality blue carbon market mechanisms.
Climate Finance for Ocean-Based Solutions in National Climate Strategies
In its ways forward, the Global Stocktake clearly identified ocean-based solutions as essential to the global response to climate change, outlining both their mitigation and adaptation potential, and inviting Parties to take ocean-based action to the next level. While a growing number of countries include ocean-based measures in their national climate strategies, they remain underrepresented – especially mitigation options such as responsible offshore wind deployment or green shipping. Commitments are often too vague, with few quantified objectives and limited reference to the means of implementation allocated, making it difficult to assess progress. For instance, an analysis reveals that out of the 97 NDCs integrating at least one marine and coastal Nature-based Solution, less than half (45) include numerical targets to quantify and monitor their objectives.
These strategies can also serve as a critical entry point to mobilise and secure climate finance in support of ocean-based measures. To that end, and in line with the summary report of the 2024 Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue, it is necessary that Parties integrate such measures into their strategies in a quantified manner. This quantification will be key for developing countries to communicate their needs and priorities, and unlock the much-needed climate finance. Indeed, the NCQG 2023 guidance decision noted that the new scale and elements of the NCQG will be identified to reflect the ‘exigent need’ to support the implementation of current climate strategies and address the evolving needs of developing countries in achieving these strategies.
A Blue Thread Across Climate and Biodiversity Conventions
Ocean-based solutions have the potential to advance both the Paris Agreement and the Global Biodiversity Framework adopted under the Convention on Biological Diversity. However, unlocking this potential requires their integration into national biodiversity and climate strategies in a holistic and coherent manner, which is currently missing. Despite being highly complementary, the two strategies are addressed as separate policy processes. As a result, ocean policies are developed in silos, addressing either biodiversity or climate goals, without systematically considering the two. This year’s agenda favours further coordination and collaboration across national administrations, given that, for the first time, the two submission cycles overlap, with biodiversity strategies due October 2024 and climate strategies following in February 2025. To guide countries in their synergy journey, the Ocean & Climate Platform and the Blue Marine Foundation, along with twelve partner organisations, launched the policy brief “Blue Thread: Aligning National Climate and Biodiversity Strategies”, which explores how ocean-based solutions can help address the interconnected crises of climate change and biodiversity loss.
This policy brief also puts forward the Ocean Breakthroughs – launched last year at COP28 – as a driver to accelerate action and investments in five key ocean sectors, namely marine conservation, aquatic food, offshore renewable energy, shipping, and coastal tourism. They establish positive tipping points for each sector, to contribute to a resilient, nature-positive and net-zero future by 2050. In this context, the Ocean Breakthroughs can effectively advance both nature and climate goals in a holistic and equitable manner, responding to the need for more synergies at the implementation level. Building on these efforts, the ocean community will be highly mobilised at COP29, with the launch of the Coastal Tourism Breakthrough on Ocean Action Day (November 21), highlighting progress in other sectors to demonstrate that non-state actors are unique drivers of change.
The outcomes of COP29 will redefine global climate finance as we know it. With the establishment of the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), COP29 has the potential to rebuild trust between developed and developing nations, addressing persistent funding gaps and unlocking the resources needed to drive transformative climate action. It will define the level of ambition in climate strategies of developing countries, while reaffirming a collective commitment to the successful implementation of the Paris Agreement. The ocean, our best ally in the fight against climate change, which currently ranks low on the COP29 agenda, should not be overlooked in these discussions. To that end, considering and integrating ocean finance as a key component of climate finance will be essential to effectively leverage the ocean’s mitigation and adaptation potential, protect vulnerable coastal communities, and drive progress toward a resilient, nature-positive future.