After two weeks of tough negotiations, the COP27 ended on Sunday, 20th of November, with the adoption of the “Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan”. While the World Leaders Summit had started with commitments to move towards action and symbolic declarations, notably from Antonio Guterres who declared “We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator”, COP27 still concluded with mixed outcomes. Despite the urgency clearly pointed out by the latest scientific reports, i.e. the IPCC 6th Assessment Report which underscored the unprecedented acceleration of climate change and its impacts and the need for undertaking rapid, immediate and transformational change, the final declaration merely reiterates the 1.5°C target. However, after years of arduous negotiations between developing and developed countries, this COP finally reached a consensus on the creation of a specific fund for loss and damage. From a blue perspective, the final decision further acknowledges the role of the ocean and strengthens the mandate for the annual Ocean-Climate Dialogue.
An increasingly blue COP, with the ocean identified in the final declaration
This year again, the ocean community was strongly mobilised during the COP27. This involvement was reflected in the hosting of the Ocean Pavilion, thanks to the leadership of some twenty scientific institutions (a first ever in the Blue Zone) and the organisation of more than 300 ocean-related events. Several declarations have also reinforced the recognition of the fundamental role of the ocean in the climate system, and the need to consider it as our best ally in the fight against climate change. Among the main announcements:
- France expressed its support for the prohibition of seabed exploitation.
- The Egyptian presidency, together with the Government of Germany and the IUCN, launched the ENACT Initiative (Enhancing Nature-based Solutions for an Accelerated Climate Transformation) – which will coordinate global efforts to address climate change, land and ecosystem degradation, and biodiversity loss through Nature-based Solutions (NbS).
- The Netherlands has introduced the Champions Group for Deltas and Coastal Zones which will seek to harmonise action between countries and Small Island States to realise sustainable management of deltas and coastal zones in the short and medium term – and to provide area-specific advice to countries on the integral implementation of their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) or national climate adaptation strategies.
- Several steps forward have also been taken for blue carbon ecosystems. Mangroves have been the object of financial commitments, with the launch of the Mangrove Breakthrough: an investment target of USD 4 billion to secure the future of 15 million hectares of mangroves globally by 2030. This breakthrough will build on collective action to halt mangrove loss, restore half of recent losses, double protection of mangroves globally, and ensure sustainable long-term finance for all existing mangroves. The recently launched High-Quality Blue Carbon Principles and Guidance outlines the conditions for high-quality blue carbon projects and credits to ensure accountability, sustainability, and transparency in the marketplace. This aligns with growing demands for blue carbon credits that continue to attract many new actors and have been valued at over USD 190 billion per year and estimated to reduce costs associated with impacts such as flooding by over USD 65 billion annually.
- With regard to the development of the blue economy, initiatives have emerged as a step towards the “Race to Zero”. Ten leading shipping organisations and green hydrogen producers have committed to producing and deploying at least 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030. Belgium, Colombia, Germany, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the US also joined the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), founded at COP26. The Alliance aims to be a global driving force for the uptake of offshore wind by bringing together governments, international organisations and the private sector to close the emissions gap and enhance energy security.
The growing inclusion of the ocean in the climate discussions is also mirrored in the COP’s final declaration, with the preamble stating “the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems, including in forests, the ocean and the cryosphere, and the protection of biodiversity” and to the “the critical role of protecting, conserving and restoring water systems and water-related ecosystems in delivering climate adaptation benefits and co-benefits, while ensuring social and environmental safeguards”. For the first time, the ocean (without the “s”!) is also addressed in a dedicated sub-section in the final decision:
- In line with the final decision of COP26, article 15 on mitigation “emphasises the importance of protecting, conserving and restoring nature and ecosystems to achieve the Paris Agreement temperature goal, including through forests and other terrestrial and marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and by protecting biodiversity, while ensuring social and environmental safeguards”;
- Article 45 “Welcomes the outcomes of and key messages from the ocean and climate change dialogue in 2022 and decides that future dialogues will, from 2023, be facilitated by two co-facilitators, selected by Parties biennially, who will be responsible for deciding the topics for and conducting the dialogue, in consultation with Parties and observers, and preparing an informal summary report to be presented in conjunction with the subsequent session of the Conference of the Parties”. Precisions warmly welcomed by the ocean community that called for strengthening the process of the annual dialogue to ensure efficiency – and a further step towards anchoring ocean issues within the institutional mechanisms of the climate convention.
- Regarding the implementation of ocean-based climate solutions, the final decision “encourages Parties to consider, as appropriate, ocean-based action in their national climate goals and in the implementation of these goals, including but not limited to nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies and adaptation communications;” (article 46). This further recognises the portfolio of solutions that the ocean can provide to achieve the climate and sustainable development objectives. However, vigilance will be needed to ensure that only scientifically-proven ocean-based actions, that are climate-smart and biodiversity-positive, are put forth. This will call for thorough monitoring on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) development, including ocean-based CDR.
- The final decision also recognizes the “need to address existing gaps in the global climate observing system” (article 26), and “to address systematic observation gaps, particularly in developing countries and for ocean, mountain, desert and polar regions and the cryosphere in order to improve understanding of climate change, climate-related risks and tipping points, and adaptation limits and to ensure enhanced delivery of climate services and early warning systems”.
These are notable advances for the ocean, although the final language on the ocean was notably reduced from initial proposals of previous decision drafts. Regarding the ocean-climate-biodiversity nexus, while the preamble “underlines the urgent need to address, in a comprehensive and synergetic manner, the interlinked global crises of climate change and biodiversity loss in the broader context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as the vital importance of protecting, conserving, restoring and sustainably using nature and ecosystems for effective and sustainable climate action”, the COP15 of the Convention on Biological Diversity is not mentioned in the final decision. A few weeks ahead of the adoption of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework in Montreal, this is a great letdown considering the urgency to jointly address the climate and biodiversity crises – as called for by many scientists and civil society representatives: there will be no Paris without Montreal.
The conclusions on the four main topics of the COP (mitigation, adaptation, finance, loss and damage) followed a similar dynamic, with a final decision well below expectations – except for some significant progress on loss and damage.
Insufficient moves to action to keep 1.5°C alive
With the considerable gap between the need to reduce 30 to 45% of GHG emissions by 2030 to align with the Paris Agreement, and the aggregated effect of Parties’ mitigation pledges that would amount to 5 to 10% of reduction, the final declaration recalled the urgency of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach through “rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions of 43% by 2030 relative to the 2019 level”. To that end, Parties asserted the need for accelerated transition towards renewable energy, calling for the investment of 4 trillions USD per year up until 2030 in renewable energy to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Meanwhile the final decision calls for the phase down of “unabated coal power” and the phase out of “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies […] in line with national circumstances”. A formulation which clearly excludes the phase out of all subsidies to fossil fuels and waters down the call made earlier during negotiations by India, the UK, the EU, Colombia, Denmark, the 48-strong Least Developed Countries and 38 members of the Alliance of Small Island States to phasedown of “all” fossil fuels. In the context of the current energy crisis, this negative signal adds up to recent publications reporting the peaking of carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2022 and recording the highest number of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP.
No clear goal to guide scaled-up efforts on adaptation finance and implementation
Recalling the urgency to close the “adaptation gap” and to implement “transformational change”, Parties were expected to raise their ambition towards the achievement of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The final declaration calls for scaled-up efforts from developed countries in the provision to developing countries of finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. It also reiterates the goal to reach a universal coverage of early warning systems against extreme weather and climate change within the next five years and the development of ecosystem-based approach adaptation. Nonetheless, the final declaration misses the provision of clear guidance on adaptation finance and implementation. Notwithstanding, mentions of the doubling of adaptation finance by 2025 and the balance between mitigation and adaptation finance both have been removed from the final declaration in spite of demands from developing countries.
Towards the just and sufficient funding of mitigation and adaptation
The just and sufficient provision of finance from developed to developing countries has been front and centre during these two weeks. The declaration highlights the critical importance of transforming the “financial system […] engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors” and from developed countries to provide USD 100 billion per year to developing countries for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation ambitions. For the pre-2030 period, it is estimated that between USD 5.8-5.9 trillions are needed by developing countries to implement their NDCs. Parties are calling for greater contribution from and reform of practices and priorities of multilateral development banks (MDBs) and international financial institutions (IFIs). To align with the Paris Agreement, they are urged to facilitate finance access while developing “fit-for-purpose” instruments that address the global emergency while avoiding exacerbating developing countries’ debts. This demand echoes recent UN reports which pointed out the risk for more than 50 of the poorest developing countries of defaulting on their debt due to external shocks from the energy crisis and inflation. Likewise, the declaration paves the way for the “Bridgetown Agenda” championed by Barbados with the support of France and 10 developed nations, i.e. the G7, which will meet in June in Paris to define structural reform of MDBs and IFIs.
After decades of tough negotiations, a fund for loss and damage is finally enacted
One of the key issues of this COP was the conditions and mechanisms for financing “loss and damage” (article 8 of the Paris Agreement). While this divisive issue has been on the negotiating table for years, a consensus was finally agreed upon at COP27 with the creation of a dedicated loss and damage fund to support communities most affected by climate change, via the operationalisation of the Santiago network. This is a landmark moment and a major step for the most vulnerable countries, which have been calling for such a measure since the 1992 Rio Conference. While mention is made of the inclusion of women, youth, and indigenous peoples on the Advisory Board, which is a real step forward, it is disappointing that Environmental Non-Governmental Organisations (ENGOs) were left out.
Despite these significant progresses, COP27 failed to deliver on Loss And Damage as a separate element within the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) due to developed countries blocking. This means that no decisions on the scale, scope, quality and access to finance were made at COP27; and that these issues will need to be addressed at COP28 to be operationalized.
The stakes of this COP27 were high to reestablish trust and dialogue between developed and developing countries for moving toward action on climate change. In that regard, the landmark on loss and damage is “a small victory for humankind” according to Avinash Persaud, Special Climate Envoy to Barbados’ Prime Minister. Nevertheless, this final decision cruelly lacks ambition in the face of the climate emergency. Parties will have to show much stronger political will at COP28 which will take stock of their progress on climate action. Although the climate-biodiversity nexus is increasingly integrated throughout the negotiations, much remains to be done to develop a holistic approach to the multiple crises the world is facing. As a central component of the global balance, and at the crossroads of climate, environmental and sustainable development issues, the ocean must have a central place in the discussions. A few weeks ahead of COP15 of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the adoption of the Post-2020 global framework for biodiversity, the Ocean & Climate Platform will continue to carry the following message: “There will be no Paris without Montreal”.
Authors: Sarah Palazot, Anaïs Deprez, Loreley Picourt, with the support of Louise Robillard and Florine Dominguez