Dec 15 2023
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Photo credit:  COP28/Christopher Pike


On 13 December, after two weeks of intense negotiations bringing together almost 200 countries and more than 80 000 registered participants, the COP28 concluded with the landmark adoption of the first Global Stocktake outcome (GST). In addition to being the COP which finally operationalised the Loss & Damage Fund (now bringing $792 million in Parties’ pledges), it is also the first one to explicitly call on Parties to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” in the final outcome.

Presided by the United Arab Emirates, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), significant and legitimate concerns were raised on the ability of the negotiations to deliver an ambitious enough outcome. Despite being an unprecedented step on the road to fossil fuel phase out, many stakeholders have expressed their disappointment over the lack of a more explicit statement considering its role as the primary contributor to the climate crisis. 

Navigating in these complex waters, the ocean made it across the finish line with unprecedented recognition of its contribution in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. From the preamble to the guidance and ways forward, the ocean’s potential for both mitigation and adaptation has been unequivocally acknowledged as part of the solutions to address the climate and biodiversity crises.

As governments have now agreed on a decision that has been both deemed as historic and weak, dive into the Ocean & Climate Platform’s analysis of the COP28’s outcomes.

 

The GST outcome sounds the alarm about the inadequacy of climate action

Unsurprisingly, and echoing the key findings from the IPCC 6th Assessment, the final text of the GST (known as the CMA-5 decision) reflects the current state of climate action, stating that “Parties are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals” and that the window for raising ambition and implementing existing commitments to do so is rapidly narrowing. Echoing concerns over the absence of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in previous drafts, the GST affirms the country-driven nature of climate action, “in accordance with national circumstances”. 

The GST outcome also points out that “policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in higher global greenhouse gas emissions than those implied by the nationally determined contributions”, indicating an implementation gap between the Parties’ commitments as formulated in their climate strategies and the level of action required to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. While the IPCC indicates that a 43% reduction in global emissions by 2030 is necessary to limit warming below 2°C, the 2022 synthesis report on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) mentioned that, if all NDCs are fully implemented, emission levels in 2030 will only be 5.3% lower than in 2019. The message is clear: Parties will need to show much greater ambition in the design and implementation of their next national climate strategies, to be delivered from 2024 onwards. 

 

Nature at the heart of the discussions and an unprecedented recognition of the ocean as a solution to the climate crisis

Claimed as one of their priorities, the COP28 Presidency successfully anchored Nature in the negotiations, thus acknowledging the necessity to protect it and its role in climate action. As recalled by H.E. Razan Al Mubarak, High Level Climate Champions for COP28, “Nature is not just decorative or recreational: it is foundational. From savannah to mangroves, Nature is an invaluable ally in combating climate change, and represents the most cost effective and scalable tool to adapt to its consequences”. 

Amidst various commitments and initiatives related to Nature, COP28 witnessed momentum at the highest political level for the Mangrove Breakthrough, with 49 Governments and over 50 non-States Actors supporting its targets, and with the launch of its Financial Roadmap. A strong mobilisation for Food is also worth noting, as 152 World Leaders signed the UAE Agriculture and Food Declaration and 200+ non-State actors united behind the Call to Action for Transforming Food Systems, for People, Nature and Climate. Additionally, 18 countries signed the COP28 Joint Statement on Climate, Nature and People to urgently address climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation together in a coherent, synergetic and holistic manner, in accordance with the best available science. Moreover, the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) Coalition for Nature launched their “Nature-Climate Action Roadmap” to strengthen selected marine protected areas as nature-based solutions to climate change.

On the road to COP30 in Belém, both UAE and Brazilian Presidencies have announced a two-year partnership aiming at mobilising new resources and political support for Nature, thus perpetuating its central role in climate COPs.

Cheering for this unprecedented mobilisation, expectations of the ocean community were high and adequately anticipated with the publication of recommendations for Integrating the Ocean into the CMA 5 decision. These options turned out to be well reflected in the GST outcome, which makes several references to the ocean from the preamble to the guidance and ways forward (detailed below):

  • In the Preamble, Parties note “the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems, including (…) the ocean”. 
  • Under Mitigation, Article 33 further emphasises “the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal including […] marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and by conserving biodiversity”, and Article 35 “Invites Parties to preserve and restore oceans and coastal ecosystems and scale up, as appropriate, ocean-based mitigation action”.
  • Under Adaptation, Article 55 “Encourages the implementation of integrated, multi-sectoral solutions, such as (…) nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based approaches, and protecting, conserving and restoring nature and ecosystems, including (..) marine and coastal ecosystems” and Article 56 notes that “ocean-based adaptation and resilience measures (..) can reduce a range of climate change risks and provide multiple co-benefits”; while Article 63d urges increased ambition and enhanced action towards “Reducing climate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity and accelerating the use of ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions, including through their management, enhancement, restoration and conservation and the protection of (…) marine and coastal ecosystems”.
  • Under Guidance and way forward, Article 180 welcomes “the outcomes of and the informal summary report on the 2023 ocean and climate change dialogue and encourages further strengthening of ocean-based action, as appropriate”.

 

Moreover, the text stresses on several occasions the necessity to build synergies between the Paris Agreement and other global frameworks, especially the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the Sustainable Goals (Articles 33, 63 and 163). It also emphasises the important role and active engagement of non-Party stakeholders in supporting Parties and contributing to the significant progress towards the Paris Agreement and enhancing ambition (Article 158), while encouraging the UN Climate Change High Level Champions (HLC), the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action (MP-GCA) and non-Party stakeholders, to include the outcomes of the GST in their work (Article 185). 

The ocean community indeed has been strongly mobilised, particularly with the launch of the Ocean Breakthroughs ahead of COP28, and rallied its forces at the Ocean Pavilion and through the organisation of hundreds of ocean-related events, including two flagship events on Saturday 9 December, dedicated to Nature as our best ally for climate action, and to Power the Ocean Breakthroughs. Non-Party stakeholders made a splash with several announcements to scale up ocean-based climate action, including: 

  • On Sustainable Ocean Plans: 40 companies, including Ørsted, Iberostar Group and Thai Union signed a call for Sustainable Ocean Plans to catalyse markets, while underpinning the achievement of the Ocean Breakthroughs and the Sharm El Sheikh Adaptation Agenda.

 

A mixed outcome regarding mitigation despite progress towards the energy transition

The ocean’s potential for mitigation was amply recognised in the GST outcome to deliver on emissions reductions targets. Building on the COP26 final decision, Parties emphasised “the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal including […] marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases […]”. In addition, they invited “Parties to […] scale up, as appropriate, ocean-based mitigation action”, thereby recognising the broader portfolio of ocean-based mitigation solutions, i.e., decarbonising the shipping industry or scaling offshore renewable energy. 

Regarding the hot topic of energy transition, COP28 has witnessed a surge in addressing this challenge, particularly focusing on the phasing out of fossil fuels. On this pressing issue, this COP has seen some noteworthy advancements: for the first time in a decision text of the UNFCCC, there is an explicit call for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems”. This is an important step up from the decision of COP27, which solely referred to “fossil fuel subsidies”, and a strong political signal considering the significant contribution of the fossil fuel sector to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, in the face of the current climate emergency, numerous States and non-State actors deplore that this COP did not endorse a strong statement on the phasing out of fossil fuels. However, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), brushed a more positive picture: “We didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era, but this is clearly the beginning of the end”. 

Commitments to reduce methane emissions, a gas accounting for 10% of GHG emissions related to the energy sector, were also made during COP28: over $1 billion in new funding for methane action has been mobilised since COP27, and new States (i.e., Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Romania, and Angola) have joined the Methane Pledge, bringing the total number of signatories to 155. In spite of these fundings, no clear timeline or required scale of methane emissions reductions by 2030 are mentioned in the GST.

Additional progress is important to note in the field of renewable energy: the GST decision calls on Parties to “triple renewable energy capacity globally and double the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030” (Article 28a). Commitments have already been made in this direction during COP28, as nearly 120 States have pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030, as a route to cut the share of fossil fuels in the world’s energy production. 

Advancements are more nuanced when it comes to coal. Despite a call for “Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power” (Article 28b), the text remains unchanged from the decision made in Glasgow, thus reflecting a lack of renewed ambition since COP26. 

Concerns also arise about the lack of details on financing the energy transition, especially for the countries that need it the most, as well as the call for an acceleration of “removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilisation and storage“ (Article 28e). As recalled by the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6), geoengineering methods face serious limitations. Their effectiveness in absorbing CO2 remains unclear as they are still at an early stage of development, and such processes have never been deployed on a grand scale. Critical knowledge gaps remain on their potential impact in terms of GHG emissions and consequences for biodiversity. A precautionary and ethical approach is imperative while the drastic reduction of GHGs on a global scale remains the priority. 

 

Adaptation: the outcome falling short from the expectations and needs

The GST underscores the role of the ocean and marine and coastal ecosystems in supporting adaptation to climate change and its impacts, and in enhancing resilience. Recognising the importance of integrated and multi-sectoral solutions, as well as the co-benefits they provide, the GST specifically calls for the adoption of ecosystem-based approaches and implementation of Nature-based solutions, including coastal and marine.

Overall, while acknowledging efforts made by Parties to scale adaptation efforts, the GST calls for “urgent, incremental, transformational and country-driven adaptation action” in line with the conclusion of the most recent IPCC reports. In that regard, it further recognises the iterative nature of adaptation, which necessitates to go through risk and impact assessment, planning, implementation, as well as monitoring, evaluation and learning.

Central to the COP28 negotiations, and complementary to the GST, was the finalisation of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The adopted framework includes several targets stating that, by 2030, all Parties must have (a) conducted and updated the assessment of impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities, (b) put in place national adaptation plans and mainstreamed adaptation in all relevant strategies, (c) made progress in implementing them, and lastly (d) designed and operationalised monitoring, evaluating, and learning systems. Deferring Parties’ deliberations on a new collective quantified goal on climate finance to 2024, the outcome on adaptation concludes on the launch of a 2-year work programme “on indicators for measuring progress […] identifying and, as needed, developing indicators and potential quantified elements for those targets”. 

The GGA framework also urges both Parties and non-Party stakeholders to ground adaptation efforts in the best available science and the “worldviews and values of Indigenous Peoples.” It further underscores the importance of inclusive governance and recognises a spectrum of key stakeholders, such as the private sector, at various levels of governance, including local governments. The GGA acknowledges the distinctive “leadership” role of Indigenous peoples and local communities as “stewards of nature“. In accordance, it places a strong emphasis on addressing social equity issues, including by advocating for the adoption of “gender-responsive” and “human-rights” approach, as well as considerations of “intergenerational equity” when designing adaptation responses.

These principles should guide action to achieve the GGA objectives and, more specifically, a set of 7 targets – including one on “reducing climate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, and accelerating the use of ecosystem-based adaptation and nature-based solutions including through their management, enhancement, restoration and conservation and the protection of […] marine and coastal ecosystems” – language that aligns with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. 

However, adaptation finance centred a lot of criticism and concerns, in both GGA- and GST-related discussions. Parties expressed apprehension about the widening “adaptation finance gap,” underscoring that the estimated “adaptation finance needs of developing countries are at USD 215–387 billion annually until 2030”. Despite the commitment made in the Glasgow Pact for developed countries to double adaptation finance for developing nations from 2019 levels by 2025, numerous developing countries stressed the inadequacy of the target and the absence of references and indicators for tracking adaptation finance. Although the GST acknowledges the set target, it also recognises that “adaptation finance will need to be significantly scaled up beyond the doubling” to effectively support the urgent and evolving requirements for accelerating adaptation and enhancing resilience in developing countries. In response to concerns about the mounting debt of developing countries to finance adaptation, the outcome underscores the importance of expanding grant-based and non-debt instruments. 

Overall, the COP28 decisions on adaptation, related to both the GST and the GGA, are seen by many observers as failing to deliver concrete targets and described as a collection of ambiguous language – for which Parties do not have a common understanding nor aligned vision and definition. As stated by IIED’s executive director Tom Mitchell, the “current pledges for adaptation are welcome, but nowhere near enough, and are feeding a broken system”, underscoring profound divides particularly between developing and developed countries. 

 

 

The expectations were high for this COP, and while many stakeholders have mixed feelings about its outcomes, notable advancements have been achieved, providing States with a clear roadmap to adjust their climate trajectories. With the inclusion of the ocean in the Guidance and ways forward, the GST outcome clearly emphasises the crucial role of the ocean in the global response needed to correct course to achieve the long term goals of the Paris Agreement. As such, Parties welcomed the conclusions of the 2023 Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue, stressing both its role to help Parties enhance their ocean-based measures and the need to strengthen ocean-climate action within existing UNFCCC processes. Indeed, the adoption of the first Global Stocktake is not the end game but the foundation for greater ambition to be deployed at the national level, including in the upcoming revision of Parties’ climate strategies. 

Moreover, this COP was instrumental in rekindling international cooperation and reigniting hope for a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels. Now, as emphasised by Simon Stiel during the closing plenary, “All governments and businesses need to translate these pledges into tangible actions in the real economy.” With the Ocean Breakthroughs, the ocean community now has a lighthouse to guide accelerated action and investments in ocean-based sectors to deliver on Nature and Climate goals, as we embark towards the upcoming COPs to be held in Azerbaijan in 2024 and Brazil in 2025.

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