Ten years after the Paris Agreement, COP30 in Belém marked a pivotal moment for global climate cooperation. While Parties reaffirmed their commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the new climate plans submitted still place the world on a 2.3-2.5°C trajectory and Parties were unable to reach agreement on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. Nevertheless, positive steps were taken forward. In an effort to shift from negotiations to implementation, the Action Agenda emerged as a driving force for the next phase of the Paris Agreement implementation. The outcome of this COP may be modest, but it is meaningful – evidence that international climate cooperation remains, in the words of UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, “alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet.” In this context, the ocean stood out as a reliable source of climate solutions.
Ratcheting Up Global Ambition Amid a Challenging Political Landscape
Combating Climate Disinformation, Upholding Climate Science
Against a challenging political backdrop, the COP30 Presidency set out to make COP30 the “COP of Truth”. More than a moment of truth – with the submission of new, more ambitious national climate plans after the first-ever Global Stocktake – President Lula was determined to combat disinformation in defense of climate science. Building on the Global Initiative for information integrity on Climate Change, COP30 elevated for the first time the issue of climate change information integrity.
Alongside calls to keep the 1.5°C target alive and limit overshoot, Parties broadly rallied behind the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as a handful of countries tried to downplay the scientific conclusions in the texts and undermine its role as the provider of the best available science. Despite this mobilisation, references to the need “to counter misinformation on climate change” were removed, and the latest findings on the state of climate were excluded from several texts, raising deep concerns across delegations and observers.
Disappointments Over Roadmap to Phase Out Fossil Fuel
Parties agreed on the Global Mutirão – the political outcome of the conference. While not a “cover decision”, it consolidated key issues outside the formal agenda and became the main agreement from COP30. Crucially, the Global Mutirão provided a space to discuss the establishment of a roadmap to phase out fossil fuel – the primary driver of climate change.
At the World Leaders Summit, President Lula of Brazil called for “roadmaps to justly and strategically (…) overcome dependence on fossil fuels”. Responding to COP28’s call to move away from fossil fuel, this roadmap dominated headlines during the two weeks of negotiations, supported by +80 countries. Yet, opposed by petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, it was removed from the final Mutirão text, drawing widespread criticism and disappointment over the missed opportunity.
Alternatively, the COP30 Presidency committed to developing a formal roadmap by COP31. It also introduced two new mechanisms: the Belém 1.5°C Mission and the Global Implementation Accelerator. While they fall short of the ambition needed, they provide an opportunity to accelerate implementation and accountability. Initial progress may be shared on 28-29 April 2026, when Colombia and the Netherlands co-host the First International Conference on Fossil Fuel Phaseout.
Bringing Nature Back to the Heart of Climate Action
Global Ambition: Elevating The Ocean Alongside Forests
As early as 2022, President Lula announced his commitment to host COP30 in the Amazon, aiming to place nature – and forests in particular – at the center of climate action. However, with 2025 marked by major ocean milestones, including the 3rd UN Ocean Conference, Brazil eventually elevated the ocean alongside forests. This was reflected by the appointment of a COP30 Presidency Special Envoy for the Ocean and the inclusion of an Ocean segment within the World Leaders Summit – signalling its political significance. As a result, the ocean was explicitly recognised in the Global Mutirão text as a critical carbon sink and contributor to global climate stability.
As stewards of nature, Indigenous Peoples and local communities (IPLCs) were recognised as key actors at COP30. The Brazilian Presidency sought to engage these local actors, mobilising the largest Indigenous delegation in UNFCCC history and placing Indigenous rights, leadership and knowledge at the center of negotiations. However, this ambition faced several constraints. Only 14% of Indigenous applicants obtained Blue Zone accreditation, triggering important protests and confrontations, and logistical challenges such as accommodation prices, further restricted their participation. Efforts to strengthen representation stalled, leaving many feeling that a milestone in visibility did not translate into meaningful inclusion into political outcomes.
National Commitments: The Promise of Blue NDCs
The COP’s top priority was the revision of national climate plans – known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). According to the recent UNFCCC NDC Synthesis Report, nearly 90% of Parties indicated that their updated plans were informed by the first Global Stocktake, many demonstrated improvements in their quality, scope and credibility. However, some gaps remained. Even with more than 100 new climate plans submitted, the world remains on track for 2.3-2.5°C of warming by 2100.
Momentum around Blue NDCs offered a more encouraging outlook. The Blue NDC Challenge’s call to include more ocean-based climate measures in NDC resonated globally. A new report from the Ocean & Climate Platform, Ocean Conservancy, and the World Resources Institute shows that of 66 newly submitted NDCs from coastal and island countries, 61 now include at least one ocean-related measure – including newcomers such as the European Union or Brazil. During the Ministerial event “From Ambition to Implementation: Delivering Ocean Commitments” (18 November 2025), six new countries – Belgium, Cambodia, Canada, Indonesia, Portugal, and Singapore – joined the Challenge. Additionally, Brazil and France announced the transition of the Challenge into a Blue NDC Implementation Taskforce – signalling a shift from commitment toward delivery. These developments highlight the growing recognition of the portfolio of ocean-based climate solutions.
However, progress will depend on Parties’ ability to translate their national commitments into concrete action. COP30 secured agreements on the means to deliver on this renewed ambition, including critical areas such as adaptation, finance, and cooperation across international conventions.
A New Era of Delivery: From Negotiations to Implementation
Several agreements reached during the negotiations could provide support for ocean-climate action, while fulfilling the COP26 mandate to mainstream the ocean across UNFCCC processes.
Adopting Indicators to Measure Progress Toward the Global Goal on Adaptation
Negotiators were tasked to agree on a set of indicators to measure collective progress toward the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). Despite significant setbacks, particularly regarding the measurement of finance, the Belém Adaptation Indicators were adopted. Of the 59 indicators, six focus on ecosystems and biodiversity. Importantly, the text encourages countries to disaggregate indicators by ecosystem types, explicitly referencing the ocean and coasts. This represents a win for the ocean community, opening the door to more consistent monitoring of ocean resilience. Several countries, however, felt the decision was rushed, with the Presidency reportedly ignoring attempts to raise concerns before the decision was gavelled. Discussions will continue in the coming years, including through technical work to refine the metadata and methodologies of the indicators and through the launch of the two-year “Belém-Addis Vision on Adaptation” policy process.
Securing Adequate Resources for National Climate Plans
While finance was not at the top of the COP30 agenda, Belém inherited momentum from the Baku finance discussions, which influenced much of the conference. Ultimately, finance emerged as a major outcome of the Mutirão package, notably including: a commitment to host a ministerial event on the implementation of the new collective quantitative goal on climate finance; a call for efforts to triple climate adaptation finance by 2035; and the establishment of a two-year work programme. These initiatives could notably provide greater clarity on the allocation of new climate finance to specific sectors, including the ocean.
Some positive signals have emerged, starting with the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, which identified nature as one of its five pillars. The roadmap highlights priorities such as marine protected areas, blue carbon ecosystems, coastal community resilience and more transparent ocean governance. In addition, the Standing Committee on Finance will dedicate its 2026 Forum to water systems and the ocean, which could help clarify the current scale of climate finance directed toward ocean-based climate solutions and provide actionable recommendations. This could also support the development of a Blue Finance Window – a dedicated mechanism to channel predictable, trackable and scalable finance toward ocean-based climate solutions – discussed in the margins of the negotiations.
A Missed Opportunity to Advance Rio Synergies
Despite the momentum generated at Biodiversity COP16 in Cali, and Brazil’s commitment to carry forward the legacy of Rio, efforts to strengthen synergies across the Rio Conventions did not meet expectations at COP30. The formal decision offered only minimal engagement, with a request to the UNFCCC Secretariat to strengthen its engagement with the Joint Liaison Group to support coordination across the Rio Convention secretariat. Nevertheless, countries continued to mobilise through high-level dialogues outside the negotiation rooms, culminating in the adoption of the Belem Joint Statement. Notably, the Declaration calls for the mobilisation and collaboration across respective action agendas – marking a first for this issue. However, the ocean, despite its potential to serve as a blue thread across conventions, remained mostly absent from the discussions.
The Wave Forward: Ensuring Civil Society Engagement
A Blue Mutirão for the Ocean
Beyond the negotiation rooms, COP30 stood out for its broad engagement and mobilisation of civil society, driven by the Presidency’s call for a Global Mutirão (or “collective mobilisation”) and a revitalised Action Agenda – stressing that governments cannot advance climate action alone. Structured around six thematic pillars, with one dedicated to nature including protecting and restoring ocean and marine ecosystems, the COP30 Action Agenda provided a high-profile platform for NGOs, the private sector, IPLC representatives, and scientific institutes in Belém.
The ocean community joined the “global mutirão for the ocean” across the Ocean Pavilion, Ocean Day events, and the Wave Forward campaign, Among the most significant contributions is the Blue Package. Resulting from the collaboration of members of the ocean community, and led by the Marrakech Partnership Ocean & Coastal Zones, the Climate High Level Champions Team and Brazil’s Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, the Blue Package translates the Ocean Breakthroughs into concrete action, tracing a shared roadmap to scale ocean-based solutions for climate, nature and people by 2028, showing how collective efforts can turn ambition into impact.
Tracking Progress, Delivering Action
At a time where the world faces growing commitment fatigue, the Ocean Breakthroughs Dashboard was launched at COP30 to track tangible progress against the Ocean Breakthroughs. This online tool marks an important step toward bridging the gap between political ambition and measurable implementation. It provides a transparent, data-driven snapshot of how ocean-based actions are contributing to climate and nature goals and translates complex data into clear, actionable insights, helping governments, businesses, and civil society understand where progress is on track, where gaps remain, and where additional action can make the greatest impact.
More initiatives driving progress on ocean-climate action were put forward as part of the Action Agenda. For example, the Mangrove Breakthrough launched the Mangrove Catalytic Facility as an engine to accelerate investment readiness and achieve its target of mobilizing $4 billion to restore and protect 15 million hectares of mangroves by 2030. COP30 also saw the launch of the Saltmarsh Breakthrough and a new partnership between UNIDO and Ocean Conservancy to support the deployment of responsible ocean renewable energy for productive uses in the Global South, thus advancing the Ocean Renewable Energy Breakthrough.
Looking Ahead: Delivering on our Global Ocean-Climate Ambition
The path to the 1.5°C remains fraught with uncertainties – especially on fossil fuel phaseout and the delivery of urgently needed finance. Yet, when it comes to ocean-based climate action, the international community is now equipped with clear, actionable steps before 2028 (i.e. the next Global Stocktake) with the Blue NDC Implementation Taskforce driving political will on the one hand, and the Blue Package catalysing action from civil society on the other.
COP31, despite its unconventional configuration, could provide a key opportunity to further elevate the ocean within the climate agenda, with the conference to be hosted by Turkey in the coastal city of Antalya, the negotiations presided by Australia, and a pre-COP organised in the Pacific. Indeed, Australia has long announced its ambition to have a focus on the challenges faced by Pacific Small Islands and Developing States who have been driving the ocean-climate agenda for years now.
One priority now stands clear: the world must move beyond incremental steps and embrace transformative, systemic change that addresses the root causes of the climate and biodiversity crises, rather than just their symptoms. At a time where expressions of COP fatigue and frustrations continue to grow, a fundamental rethink of how global climate action is pursued is urgently needed. To inform these efforts, the Ocean & Climate Platform (OCP) has released new policy recommendations – “A Collective Voice to Turn the Tide for Ocean, Climate and Biodiversity” – offering a pathway toward more inclusive, coherent, and ambitious international cooperation to meet the challenges ahead.