On 12 December 2015 the signatory countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reached a historic agreement. Five years on from the Paris Agreement the progress and prospects are not equal to the signatories ambitions. The Ocean and Climate Platform (OCP), speaking for some 100 member organizations dedicated to the sea from across the world, is raising awareness of the urgent need to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reinforce efforts to adapt coastal regions to the rising sea level. Of particular concern are coastal cities that are experiencing considerable population growth. The human and economic impacts expected in the short term are colossal. In addition to the vital goal of attaining carbon neutrality, we are facing a new race against time which requires the reinforcing of adaptation measures at COP26.
COP26: a remobilization of the Parties is possible with leadership from Europe, China and the USA
The year 2020 was meant to be a decisive stage in the implementation of the Paris Agreement with nationally determined contributions (NDCs) revised upwards. And yet the assessment is alarming. Efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 have been largely insufficient.
Recent announcements by the European Union of its intention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030, the expected return of the USA to the Paris Agreement, and China’s announcement in favour of carbon neutrality by 2060 all bring fresh hope of a new dynamic emerging. They could remobilize the international community. “This new configuration could make COP26 a promising new step on the road to increasing climate ambitions and reaching a level of mitigation which complies with the goals of the Paris Agreement,” says Romain Troublé, chair of the OPC.
Build on the sea-related advances made in the Climate Agreement
We can, however, highlight a number of strategic advances achieved in the last five years which led to the ocean finally being admitted to discussions shaping the Agreement. “Prior to 2015, any discussion of climate change without mentioning the ocean was to ignore the very heart of the climate system. It took until 2019 and the publication of the IPCC’s first report on the sea and the cryosphere (SROCC) for the consensus to form: the functions of marine ecosystems (producing oxygen, absorbing heat and capturing carbon) are an integral part of the recognized solutions for tackling climate change,” says Françoise Gaill, oceanographer and Science vice-chair of the Ocean and Climate Platform. These advances were achieved through firm dialogue between scientists and decision-makers.
Indeed, it was at the “Blue COP” in Madrid (COP25) that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change finally included the ocean in its final draft and subsequent works. This dynamic will undoubtedly be strengthened by the launch of the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–2030). However these advances, which highlight the necessity to preserve marine ecosystems by virtue of their climate functions, will only make a real impact if we achieve the goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Accelerate adaptation to the rising sea level
Effectively expanding the scope of our emission-reducing ambitions continues to be the fundamental condition for limiting impacts on the ocean and the populations which depend on them. However, according to the IPCC, in the absence of a drastic and rapid reduction in emissions the level of the sea will continue to rise and could be almost a metre higher by 2100 Extreme events linked to the height of the sea which previously occurred only once in a century could happen at least once a year[i].
By 2050 more than one billion people will be living on the coast in low-lying areas which could be flooded if the sea reaches its highest level. In France, 864 districts and 165,000 buildings are already under threat according to the country’s Ministry of Ecology. In Indonesia, 40% of its capital Jakarta is already below sea level[ii] and the country’s government hopes that most of its administrative departments will have been relocated by 2024. At a global level, the potential cost could be in the region of 14,000 billion dollars a year by 2100[iii].
Rapid adaptation is, therefore, a major issue. “Such weather events will redraw the world’s coastal regions, there where most of the population lives and continues to densify. In coastal towns and their surrounding regions, the challenges will be colossal. If we are to limit the human, economic and social impacts, we must considerably strengthen adaptation measures in regional policies, and in the very short term,” says Raphaël Cuvelier, Policy Recommendations vice-chair of the Ocean and Climate Platform.
Foster solutions inspired by nature
Wetlands, mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows are all nature-based solutions and it is vital that we preserve and restore these natural defences. “In densely populated areas such as the shores of the Mediterranean defensive works should be inspired by nature, for example biocompatible sea walls, so that we can ally the protection of human societies with that of marine ecosystems,” says Patricia Ricard, Mediterrean vice-chair of the OCP. Solutions should be coordinated and adapted to the reality of each coastal area and its marine environment.
Collaborate and develop risk culture
In the face of considerable socio-economic challenges, elected representatives and administrators must help to overcome stumbling blocks and diverging interests to protect their inhabitants and foster the development of their regions.
The Ocean and Climate Platform believes that even if we have to sometimes build sea walls, it is essential that we first build a consensus. Not only does this require an effort to inform and raise awareness, it also means that we need to develop a risk culture. Today more than ever measures must mobilize civil society, scientists and businesses alongside decision-makers to tackle, together, this risk that has become very real.
[i] IPCC, 2019: Summary for Policymakers. In: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In press.
[ii] – « Jakarta Urban Challenges in a Changing Climate » – Mayors’ Task Force On Climate Change, Disaster Risk & The Urban Poor – World Bank (2011)
[iii] – According to the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) – United Kingdom.