On 9 November, the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will open in Antalya, Türkiye. One year after submitting their new climate plans – also known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), countries continue to face the challenge of scaling implementation. The ocean, one of our greatest allies in tackling climate change, has a vital role to play in meeting this challenge. With Australia leading the negotiations in partnership with Pacific Island countries and Türkiye placing the ocean among its Action Agenda priorities, COP31 has the potential to put the ocean at the heart of global climate discussions and accelerate ocean-based solutions. The ambition is clear: make COP31 a “blue COP”. But will it deliver?
Building momentum for a negotiated ocean outcome
This year’s climate conference opens against an evermore complex geopolitical backdrop, placing further strain on international cooperation. Science faces growing attacks and disinformation continues to spread, particularly on climate change, with evidence still meeting denial. Yet, the findings of the Emissions Gap Report 2026 could not be clearer: current policies put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming by 2100 – far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold.
In this context, COP31 must help bridge the gap between ambition and action. This will be no easy feat, particularly given this year’s unprecedented dual-presidency arrangement. Türkiye will host the conference and lead the Action Agenda, while Australia will preside over the negotiations. In this context, the ocean offers common ground. Both presidencies have identified it as a priority: Australia seeks to ensure ocean priorities flow through the broader climate agenda as a “continuous and directed current”, whereas Türkiye - historically less vocal on these issues - is now seeking to carry the “blue thread” from the negotiations to the Action Agenda. Together, these efforts create a valuable window for an ambitious ocean outcome.
The Pre-COP, hosted in Fiji and Tuvalu early October, built momentum. A particular emphasis was placed on improving access to climate finance and integrating the ocean across the climate regime, as reflected in the Taku Pakasoa Declaration and the Friends of Ocean and Climate letter, which outline concrete ocean and climate outcomes that could be adopted in Antalya. Moreover, earlier this month, in a significant first, the COP31 Presidency appointed a ministerial pair on the ocean – Canada and Palau, mandated to strengthen political engagement and build support for as a negotiated outcome for the ocean.
Bridging ambition and action by integrating the ocean within the Convention’s processes
While this year’s conference does not mark the submission of new strategies or the conclusion of a global stocktake, it is certainly not a quiet one. The packed negotiations agenda reflects the breadth of issues at stake, with decisions across several areas set to shape the next phase of global climate action – and the ocean must be an integral part of these discussions.
Since 2015, the ocean has come a long way: from a single reference in the Paris Agreement, it is progressively mainstreamed across the Convention’s processes. Yet, this integration remains uneven, falling short of the systematic approach needed to connect ocean-based climate solutions with the mechanisms and resources required to deploy them at scale. COP31 must accelerate these integration efforts, in line with the COP26 decision and advancing Australia’s vision for an “ocean current”. The Ocean and Climate Change Dialogue can help drive and coordinate this effort, taking on a more strategic role in informing negotiations and shaping political outcomes – if a multi-year development plan, aligned with the Paris Agreement cycle, was adopted. It could provide strategic direction, track progress, identify the gaps, and adjust course and help ensure that the ocean features more prominently across agenda items rather than creating a standalone one.
Discussions at COP31 will resume on both mitigation and adaptation. Negotiations will continue under the Mitigation Work Programme, alongside the COP30 Presidency-led Roadmap to Transition away from fossil fuels. Parties will return to the Global Goal on Adaptation, where disagreements remain over finance-related issues and the establishment of a taskforce to provide technical support on its indicators. Across both tracks, it will be essential to elevate the ocean’s potential, highlighting the specific challenges and opportunities associated with the solutions it offers.
Finally, means of implementation, particularly finance, remain a high priority. After the launch of a work programme on climate finance in 2025, discussions will focus on aligning financial flows with climate transition pathways, implementing the New Collective Quantified Goal on climate finance, and advancing the Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 trillion. The conclusions of the 2026 Forum of the Standing Committee on Finance, dedicated to “Financing ocean and water systems”, could be translated into an outcome at COP31 and help drive climate finance toward ocean-based solutions.
Leveraging ocean action in climate plans in the implementation era
As the international community now focuses on implementing the Paris Agreement at scale, guided by findings from the Global Stocktake and the 2026 Emissions Gap Report, COP31 will put countries’ climate plans in the spotlight. The challenge is to translate these commitments into real results, at the pace required by the climate urgency. The ocean, which can deliver up to 35% of the emissions reduction needed by 2050, has a critical role to play in these efforts. This potential is increasingly reflected in national plans, considering 90% of coastal and island countries integrate at least one ocean-based climate measure into their latest NDCs. Yet, despite this positive signal, the implementation gap persists: more than 60% of new ocean-climate commitments remain conditional on financial and technical support.
A year after its launch, the Blue NDC Challenge is taking steps forward to bridge this gap. Brazil and France, its co-chairs, have announced plans to support participating countries in translating their ocean-climate commitments into concrete action. In that regard, COP31 will mark a key milestone with the official launch of the Challenge’s delivery arm.
This new chapter of the Challenge is particularly timely, as this year’s conference also marks the beginning of the second Global Stocktake – a two-year process designed to assess collective progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and identify where further action is needed – and the submission of countries’ transparency reports – which complements the Stocktake by providing a picture of national progress. The ocean must feature more prominently throughout the technical processes and political outcome of the Global Stocktake, ensuring that its potential as an instrumental ally in the global fight against climate change is adequately recognised and reflected in climate policy.
All Hands on Deck: Elevating the ocean in the Action Agenda
While NDC remains the main vehicle for implementing the Paris Agreement, the Action Agenda is playing an increasingly important role. Revitalised under Brazil’s COP30 Presidency, it showcases concrete, scalable, on-the-ground solutions implemented by non-state actors. Building on Brazil’s legacy, Türkiye, which is presiding over the COP31 Action Agenda, has identified “Oceans & Seas” as one of its ten priorities. Recent initiatives, including the Ocean & Seas workshop held in Istanbul in August and the Blue Dialogue in Trabzon in September, further signal its ambition to advance ocean-based climate action.
To help translate this ambition into action, the “Blue Package” – the ocean community’s plan to accelerate the implementation of ocean-based solutions – provides a shared roadmap for coordinated efforts to achieve the Ocean Breakthroughs. By bringing ambitious, scalable ocean-based climate solutions to the forefront of the Action Agenda, COP31 can showcase progress already being made on the ground and leverage this momentum to raise ambition in the negotiations.
One Ocean, Three COPs: Building a blue thread across international frameworks
As the urgency of addressing interconnected planetary crises and accelerating implementation intensifies, greater coherence, coordination and effectiveness have never been more needed. Yet, national plans for climate and biodiversity are often developed and implemented in silos, leading to inconsistencies, competition for resources and unnecessary reporting burden. A more integrated approach is key to unlocking co-benefits and minimising trade-offs, delivering more coherent and therefore impactful outcomes for climate, nature, and people.
COP31 will take place just days after COP17 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), where enhancing coherence across Rio Conventions is high on the agenda. This creates a timely opportunity to carry this momentum within the climate processes, where negotiations on “Cooperation with other international organisations” have been stalling. By making synergies across the Rio Conventions a priority of the Action Agenda and launching the Rio Synergies Group of Action, Türkiye can help build political momentum around this issue, responding to the international community’s call for synergies.
Bringing integrated, ocean-based solutions into these discussions can help translate this call into concrete action on the ground. Initiatives such as the Ocean Breakthroughs can provide a pathway, connecting international policy processes and national action to bridge the gap between top-down ambition and bottom-up implementation.
Importantly, this integrated approach must also recognise and address potential trade-offs. Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) approaches, intended to enhance the ocean’s natural capacity to absorb or store carbon dioxide, illustrates the importance of applying the precautionary approach. Significant uncertainties remain regarding their effectiveness, its scalability, and its potential adverse impacts on biodiversity and the communities who depend on these resources. While research may be warranted to better understand this potential and impact, it should be conducted with appropriate safeguards and without preempting any deployment, to ensure that climate interventions do not come at the expense of nature and people.
But the ocean must serve as a “blue thread” weaving together the Rio Conventions and other relevant international frameworks, including the Agreement on Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ). A landmark achievement of international cooperation, the Agreement reaffirms the enduring potential of multilateralism. Its implementation will require close collaboration across institutions, conventions, and processes, ensuring that global goals reinforce one another, rather than operate in isolation. It will provide an opportunity to elevate the ocean in the broader synergies discussion and strengthening efforts to build a more integrated governance of the ocean.
In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape, the ocean can offer more than a source of climate solutions: it can serve as a common ground for renewed cooperation. Its central role in climate action, biodiversity conservation, and sustainable development makes it a key lever for breaking down the silos and accelerating implementation. Ultimately, the promise of a “Blue COP” will be measured not by how prominently the ocean features in the discussions, but by whether this political momentum translates into lasting progress. The task ahead is to ensure that the ocean is no longer treated as a separate agenda, but instead recognised as a means to deliver on existing priorities.